Current and projected climate data for North America (CMIP6 scenarios generated using ClimateNA v7.3)

ClimateNA - Current and projected climate data for North America
The datasets on this page have been developed by AdaptWest, a project funded by the Wilburforce Foundation to develop information resources for climate adaptation planning. The data were generated using the ClimateNA software. ClimateNA downscales gridded data from PRISM and WorldClim for current climate, and downscales data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) database corresponding to the 6th IPCC Assessment Report for future projections. In addition to ensemble projections, data are also provided from 9 representative individual AOGCMs. The rasters provided via this page were generated using ClimateNA version 7.3, which fixed a bug that limited the dynamic local elevation adjustment from being fully implemented for monthly minimum temperature. In other words, the Tmin rasters generated from ClimateNA versions prior to v7.3 did not have the expected degree of adjustment based on elevation. For rasters generated previously using ClimateNA v7.1, see this page.
For more information on the emission scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSPs) used in CMIP6, see this primer.

Please cite the datasets below as:

AdaptWest Project. 2022. Gridded current and projected climate data for North America at 1km resolution, generated using the ClimateNA v7.30 software (T. Wang et al., 2022). Available at adaptwest.databasin.org.

For further information and citation refer to:

Wang, T., A. Hamann, D. Spittlehouse, C. Carroll. 2016. Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America. PLoS One 11(6): e0156720 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0156720
Mahony, C.R., T. Wang, A. Hamann, and A.J. Cannon. 2022. A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America. International Journal of Climatology. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7566

For interpolated data produced using CMIP5 projections, see this link.
For interpolated data produced using the older CMIP3 projections, see this link.

As an alternative to accessing interpolated climate data in gridded data formats from the links in the table below, you can generate data using the ClimateNA software for any series of sample points of interest. See the ClimateNA manual for more information.

Data coverage and variables

The gridded climate layers downloadable below are in Lambert Azimuthal Equal-Area projection, at 1km resolution, and covering North America.

The rasters are provided in the GeoTIFF format, a non-proprietary format which is compatible with most GIS applications. The individual rasters are ~30MB in size, and each zipfile (which contains a group of rasters) is about 1GB in size.

Two sets of variables are available for download. One consists of 33 biologically relevant variables, including seasonal and annual means, extremes, growing and chilling degree days, snow fall, potential evapotranspiration, and a number of drought indices. The second dataset consists of 48 monthly temperature and precipitation variables. See the metadata for complete description of variables.

These data are made available under a CC-BY 4.0 license. This license allows users to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator.

Please report issues or questions via email to klamathconservation at gmail dot com with "Adaptwest" in the email subject line.

Model selection

Selecting scenarios for climate change impact and adaptation research is a complex task. On this page, we provide historical and projected climate normals for nine individual global climate models (AOGCMs) and two ensemble-mean projections. These nine models are the eight-model general-purpose ensemble selected by Mahony et al. (2022), plus one model (UKESM1-0) that represents the group of CMIP6 models with very high equilibrium climate sensitivity relative to observational evidence. The ensemble mean projections are calculated from the 8-model ensemble and a larger 13-model ensemble (see dendrogram below), the latter being representative of the full unconstrained CMIP6 ensemble (Mahony et al. 2022). Consistent with the guidance provided by Hausfather et al. (2022), users wishing to use an ensemble mean projection are encouraged to use the 8-model rather than the 13-model ensemble mean. In addition, users of the individual model projections are advised to exclude UKESM1-0 from ensemble analysis. Further rationale for this guidance and a comparison of the 8 and 13-model ensembles is available here.


Figure 1. Spatial variation in climate change responses among the 13-model ensemble. Mapped climate changes are for the mean projected climate of the 2041–2060 period (SSP2-4.5). Precipitation is log-scaled to provide proportional magnitude of positive and negative changes. Models are structured by a cluster dendrogram of spatial similarity in seasonal climate changes in all three climate elements. (Figure from Mahony et al. (2022)).

Figure 1



We encourage you to explore further the commonalities and contrasts between projections from different AOGCMs using this web app developed by Colin Mahony of the BC Ministry of Forests.

To cite the ensemble comparison and web app, see:

Mahony, C.R., T. Wang, A. Hamann, and A.J. Cannon. 2022. A global climate model ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America. International Journal of Climatology. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7566

Download links for climate data (1km resolution)

Note June 27, 2022: The rasters below were generated using ClimateNA version 7.3. ClimateNA version 7.3 (released May 8, 2022, downloadable from climatena.ca) identified and fixed a bug that limited the dynamic local elevation adjustment from being fully implemented for monthly minimum temperature. In other words, the Tmin rasters generated from ClimateNA versions prior to v7.3 did not have the expected degree of adjustment based on elevation. The contrast between Tmin rasters from v7.1 and v7.3 was relatively minor, and most noticeable in rasters generated at higher resolutions than the 1km tasters provided here.

Reference files: Elevation
Metadata: Projection, Variables
GeoTIFF
Readme

Climate normals
33 Bioclimatic variables 48 Monthly variables
1961-1990 period
zipfile zipfile
1971-2000 period zipfile zipfile
1981-2010 period
zipfile zipfile
1991-2020 period zipfile zipfile





Projection

Emission scenario2
Future period
33 Bioclimatic variables
48 Monthly variables
AOGCM ensemble projections



Ensemble mean of 8 CMIP6 AOGCMs (30 year periods)1
SSP1-2.6
2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP1-2.6
2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP1-2.6
2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
         
Ensemble mean of 8 CMIP6 AOGCMs (20 year periods)1
SSP2-4.5
2001-2020 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2021-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2041-2060 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2061-2080 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2081-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2001-2020 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2021-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2041-2060 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2061-2080 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2081-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2001-2020 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2021-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2041-2060 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2061-2080 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2081-2100 zipfile zipfile
         
Ensemble mean of 13 CMIP6 AOGCMs (30 year periods)1
SSP1-2.6
2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP1-2.6
2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP1-2.6
2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
         
Ensemble mean of 13 CMIP6 AOGCMs (20 year periods)1
SSP2-4.5
2001-2020 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2021-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2041-2060 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2061-2080 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2081-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2001-2020 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2021-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2041-2060 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2061-2080 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2081-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2001-2020 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2021-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2041-2060 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2061-2080 zipfile zipfile
  SSP5-8.5 2081-2100 zipfile zipfile
Projections from individual AOGCMs



ACCESS-ESM1-5
SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile





CNRM-ESM2-1
SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile





EC-Earth3
SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile



 
GFDL-ESM4
SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile





GISS-E2-1-G
SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
MIROC6 SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile





MPI-ESM1-2-HR
SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile



 
MRI-ESM2-0
SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile





UKESM1-0-LL SSP1-2.6 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP1-2.6 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile
  SSP2-4.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile
  SSP3-7.0 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2011-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2041-2070 zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2071-2100 zipfile zipfile

Footnotes:
1. See text on this page, and Mahony et a;. (2022), for list of models within each ensemble. For more information on these AOGCMS, see this page.
2. For more information on the emission scenarios used in CMIP6, see this primer.