Current and projected climate data for North America (CMIP6 scenarios)

ClimateNA - Current and projected climate data for North America
The datasets on this page have been developed by AdaptWest, a project funded by the Wilburforce Foundation to develop information resources for climate adaptation planning. The data were generated using the ClimateNA software. ClimateNA uses data from PRISM and WorldClim for current climate, and downscales data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) database corresponding to the 6th IPCC Assessment Report for future projections. Ensemble projections are average projections from 13 CMIP5 models (ACCESS-ESM1-5,BCC-CSM2-MR,CNRM-ESM2-1,CanESM5,EC-Earth3,GFDL-ESM4,GISS-E2-1-G,INM-CM5-0,IPSL-CM6A-LR,MIROC6,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,MRI-ESM2-0,UKESM1-0-LL) that were chosen to represent all major clusters of similar AOGCMs (see figure below for more information). In addition to the ensemble projections, data are also provided from 9 individual AOGCMs (ACCESS-ESM1-5,CNRM-ESM2-1,EC-Earth3,GFDL-ESM4,GISS-E2-1-G,MIROC6,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,MRI-ESM2-0,UKESM1-0-LL) that are representative of the larger ensemble. For more information on the emission scenarios used in CMIP6, see this primer.

Please cite the datasets below as:

AdaptWest Project. 2021. Gridded current and projected climate data for North America at 1km resolution, generated using the ClimateNA v7.01 software (T. Wang et al., 2021). Available at adaptwest.databasin.org.

For further information and citation refer to:


For interpolated data produced using CMIP5 projections, see this link.
For interpolated data produced using the older CMIP3 projections, see this link.

As an alternative to accessing interpolated climate data in gridded data formats from the links in the table below, you can generate data using the ClimateNA software for any series of sample points of interest. See the ClimateNA manual for more information.

Data coverage and variables

The gridded climate layers downloadable below are in Lambert Azimuthal Equal-Area projection, at 1km resolution, and covering North America.

The rasters are provided in the GeoTIFF format, a non-proprietary format which is compatible with most GIS applications. The individual rasters are ~30MB in size, and each zipfile (which contains a group of rasters) is about 1GB in size.

Two sets of variables are available for download. One consists of 33 biologically relevant variables, including seasonal and annual means, extremes, growing and chilling degree days, snow fall, potential evapotranspiration, and a number of drought indices. The second dataset consists of 48 monthly temperature and precipitation variables. See the metadata for complete description of variables.

These data are made available under a CC-BY 4.0 license. This license allows users to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator.

Please report issues or questions via email to klamathconservation at gmail dot com with "Adaptwest" in the email subject line.

Model selection

Selecting scenarios for climate change impact and adaptation research is a complex task. We selected nine individual models to represent all major clusters of similar AOGCMs, as shown in the dendrogram below. A broader set of 13 AOGCMs were used to create the ensemble data. Ensemble projections are also provided here for a greater range of time periods and scenarios than are the projections from individual AOGCMs. We encourage you to explore further the commonalities and contrasts between projections from different AOGCMs using this web app developed by Colin Mahony of the BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development.

Click here to see a high resolution version of the dendrogram and array of thumbnails showing change in precipitation, mean daily maximum temperature, and mean daily minimum temperature for North America for 13 AOGCMS and the ensemble.

To cite the ensemble comparison and web app, see:
Mahony, C.R., T. Wang, A. Hamann, and A.J. Cannon. 2021. A CMIP6 ensemble for downscaled monthly climate normals over North America. EarthArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31223/X5CK6Z.

CMIP6


Download links for climate data (1km resolution)

Reference files: Elevation
Metadata: Projection, Variables
GeoTIFF
Readme

Climate normals
33 Bioclimatic variables 48 Monthly variables
1961-1990 period
zipfile   zipfile  
1971-2000 period zipfile    zipfile   
1981-2010 period
zipfile zipfile  
1991-2020 period zipfile    zipfile   





Projection
Emission scenario2
Future period3
33 Bioclimatic variables
48 Monthly variables
AOGCM ensemble projections



Ensemble of 13 CMIP6 AOGCMs (30 year periods)1
SSP1-2.6
2020s zipfile   zipfile  

SSP1-2.6
2050s zipfile   zipfile  

SSP1-2.6
2080s zipfile   zipfile  

SSP2-4.5
2020s zipfile   zipfile  

SSP2-4.5
2050s zipfile   zipfile  

SSP2-4.5
2080s zipfile   zipfile  
  SSP3-7.0 2020s zipfile   zipfile  
  SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile   zipfile  
  SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile   zipfile  
  SSP5-8.5 2020s zipfile   zipfile  
  SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile   zipfile  
  SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile   zipfile  
Ensemble of 13 CMIP6 AOGCMs (20 year periods)1
SSP2-4.5
2001-2020 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2021-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2041-2060 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2061-2080 zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5
2081-2100 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2001-2020 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2021-2040 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2041-2060 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2061-2080 zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0
2081-2100 zipfile zipfile
Projections from individual AOGCMs



ACCESS-ESM1-5
SSP2-4.5 2050s
zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile





CNRM-ESM2-1
SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile





EC-Earth3
SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile





GFDL-ESM4
SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile





GISS-E2-1-G
SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile
         
MIROC6 SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile





MPI-ESM1-2-HR
SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile





MRI-ESM2-0
SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile





UKESM1-0-LL SSP2-4.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP2-4.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP3-7.0 2080s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2050s zipfile zipfile

SSP5-8.5 2080s zipfile zipfile

Footnotes:
1. The ensemble was composed of the following AOGCMs: ACCESS-ESM1-5,BCC-CSM2-MR,CNRM-ESM2-1,CanESM5,EC-Earth3,GFDL-ESM4,GISS-E2-1-G,INM-CM5-0,IPSL-CM6A-LR,MIROC6,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,MRI-ESM2-0,UKESM1-0-LL. For more information on these AOGCMS, see this page.
2. For more information on the emission scenarios used in CMIP6, see this primer.
3. 2020s: average for years 2011-2040, 2050s: 2041-2070, 2080s: 2071-2100.